Wen Chu Huang
If you gain some insights from this brief book excerpt, that would be the best Christmas gift. Merry Christmas!
(Chinese version)
Some of the most significant and far-reaching changes in history have resulted from a random, unforeseeable, and casual encounter or decision that created a brilliant or chaotic situation.
The most important decisions in my life were made entirely by chance and through unthinking good luck.
During the Battle of Long Island, the American army of 10,000 men under the command of the first President of the United States, George Washington, was defeated. At that time, the British army and their 400 warships only needed to move up the East River to completely annihilate Washington’s army. However, the wind direction was unfavorable, preventing the British from advancing up the river, thereby saving Washington. Historian McCullough said, “If the wind had blown in the other direction on the night of August 28, 1776, everything would have ended.” When asked, “Would there be no America then?” McCullough replied, “I don’t think there would be.”
作者：Morgan Housel 摩根. 豪瑟
天下文化出版
History was changed by the direction of the wind. This story reminds us of how in 1588, England defeated the Spanish Armada due to a change in wind direction, which completely reversed the situation and led to England becoming the world’s strongest nation. The Mongol invasion of Japan also failed due to the “Divine Wind” (kamikaze), rather than insufficient military strength or poor planning.
The author uses many similar stories to prove his theory. Everything is accidental, and everything is in flux. This was true in the past, is true now, and will be true in the future. Thus, the book is named “As It Always Was.”
The world is unpredictable, always has been and always will be. This applies to the economy, politics, military, society, fashion, and more.
In 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt ran for president. An assassin attempted to kill him but ended up shooting his campaign aide, the mayor of Chicago, instead. Roosevelt went on to win the election. Had the assassination attempt succeeded, Garner, who opposed the New Deal’s deficit spending, would have become president, and the U.S. economy might look very different today.
Events come together in ways that are hard to understand and uniquely shape the world. For example, COVID-19, the 9/11 attacks, the Pearl Harbor attack, and the Great Depression were all largely unnoticed until they happened. The most important news, the greatest risks, and the most far-reaching events are always the ones you can never predict.
People’s happiness depends on “expectations.” Despite world progress, happiness has stagnated or even declined. As situations improve and wealth increases, people’s expectations also rise. To achieve happiness, one must manage expectations. If expectations are boundless, happiness becomes unattainable. Your happiness is entirely dependent on your expectations.
Someone asked Warren Buffett’s 98-year-old partner, Charlie Munger, “What’s the secret to a happy life?” He replied, “The first rule for a happy life is to lower your expectations. If your expectations are unrealistic, you’re destined for misery.” When asked about Buffett’s secret to success, Munger said, “I believe it’s because he spends a lot of time reading and thinking.”
Economist John Maynard Keynes discovered that the economy has a soul, emotions, and feelings. Hill, the 1922 Nobel Prize winner, also found that while the human body operates like a machine, emotions, feelings, and fears regulate our abilities, and these factors are difficult to measure. As a result, economic and sports outcomes are often unpredictable.
Investor James O’Shaughnessy said, “In my experience, the most capable people I’ve met are unhappy. In fact, many are tormented.” Fear, pain, and struggle are their greatest motivators.
The common rule across all fields is that competitive advantages do not last long. In the 1970s, Sears was the largest retailer in the world, with subsidiaries including insurance companies, credit card issuers, brokerage firms, and real estate companies. By 2000, it had lost its former glory and influence, and everything collapsed. Once powerful companies eventually meet the same fate. From 1980 to 2014, nearly 40% of listed companies vanished. Companies that were in the top 10 of the Fortune 500, such as General Motors, Chrysler, Kodak, and Sears, ended in bankruptcy.
Success hinges on being at the right place at the right time. But time shifts and objective conditions change. Competitive advantages are often very short-lived. You have to keep running; no competitive advantage is strong enough to allow you to rest. In fact, the perceived safe haven of a competitive advantage can often lead to self-destruction. Hence, the CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, tells us, “Don’t walk, run!”
Everything has a price. Buffett’s biography reveals a tragic family life. Bill Gates’ life seemed like a fairytale until the divorce scandal broke. Elon Musk, when asked about the mental burden brought on by Tesla’s ups and downs, broke down in tears. When someone asked Jensen Huang if he would start a business again if he could redo his life, he said he wouldn’t.
Take two groups of the same small fish. One group is placed in low-temperature water, and the other in high-temperature water. Fish that grow in low-temperature water grow slower, while those in high-temperature water grow faster. When both groups are placed back in normal temperature water, they grow into normal adult fish. However, the later development is surprising. Fish that grew slowly in their youth live on average 30% longer, while those that grew quickly live on average 15% shorter. This was discovered by the University of Glasgow. Rapid growth can cause tissue damage. Hastily assembled machines are more likely to break down.
Jewish people believe that there are three principles for giving a speech or writing a book: storytelling, visualization, and digitization. No one likes listening to sermons, but everyone loves interesting stories. Complex matters need to be refined into easily understandable visuals. Numbers are memorable, but stories are more powerful.
Franklin once wrote, “The art of persuasion lies in enticing with benefits rather than reasoning with logic.” President Truman once said, “I wondered why the next generation couldn’t learn from the lessons of the previous one until I realized it takes a hard experience to make them understand.” Nearly all things must be personally experienced to discover they are more complicated and less perfect than imagined. After personal experience, one will finally understand, “So that’s how it is.” But by then, it’s too late. This is the price everyone must pay.
Yellowstone Huang
12/25/2025